Bookmakers can ban you for many reasons, with one of those being winning too many bets. Bookies will not ban every winning punter though. Risk management departments within bookmakers identify punters who consistently place bets with a positive expected value (+EV) and ban their accounts.
Unfortunately, the terms and conditions you agree to when you sign up with the bookmaker allow them to limit, close, or ban you from betting at any point. You should think of a bookmaker like any other shop owner. They can offer products for sale at a certain price but can ultimately refuse you “entry to the store”, or in the bookmaker’s case, they can refuse to accept your bets.
If you think about this further though, it seems a little contradictory. The bookmaker should want as many customers as possible, so long as they are not doing anything illegal or fraudulent. Could you imagine walking into a grocery store to purchase milk that the store owner had set the price for and then the store owner getting upset that you bought the milk?
This is essentially what bookmakers are doing. They are setting a price or odds for a particular outcome and then advertising those odds to you. They then get upset and restrict or ban your account when you place bets at the prices or odds that they have set.
What is Expected Value (EV) and Why Do Bookies Care About It?
The expected value (EV) is the difference between the odds at which a bet can be placed and the true expected probability of the outcome. The expected value can be both positive (+EV) and negative (-EV), indicating a good or bad bet, respectively. For example, a bet placed at odds of 2.05 when the true expected probability is 2.00 would be considered a +EV bet.
Bookmakers can determine the true expected probability of the outcome in two ways; by modeling the outcome using advanced statistics and data science techniques, or they use the odds calculated by a sharp bookmaker, called Pinnacle. Pinnacle is often considered the industry leader at modeling odds and can be used as a proxy for the true expected probability of the outcome.
The last odds offered before a match or game commences are referred to as the closing line. When a bet is placed with a positive expected value it is commonly referred to as beating the closing line. This is a reference to the bet being placed at higher odds than the Pinnacle closing line.
What is the Process for Banning Your Account?
There are normally several stages involved in a bookmaker banning or restricting your account. Each bookmaker will have their own risk tolerances and their own capabilities to monitor your betting activity. How quickly it takes you to get your account restricted will depend on how many bets you place, how frequently you place bets, which events and markets you bet on, and at what time of day you place them.
Your account will first be restricted in a couple of different ways. The first of these will be to block your account from receiving bonus offers. This will include deposit bonuses as well as promotional bonuses such as bet £10 to get a £10 bonus bet.
Next you may lose access to promotional offers such as boosted odds or extra places. From there your account will have its stakes reduced and eventually restricted so that you are no longer able to get bets on with liabilities of more than £1.
In rare cases, your stakes will be restricted to 0 and your account banned based on your betting activity.
Of course, if you have engaged in nefarious activities such as match fixing or money laundering your account will most definitely be banned with potential criminal charges to follow.
Tips to Avoid Being Banned
Most of the tips described below function in a similar way: their aim is to try and mask your profitable bets. What I mean by this is that you need to mix in the occasional losing bet or low value bet to break up all the +EV bets you have placed. This works by making your account appear more like a recreational bettors account then a professional sports bettor.
- Bet on sports and horse racing so you do not seem like a specialist in your betting.
- Bet on different markets such as 1×2, both teams to score, Over 2.5 goals etc
- Bet At sociable times of the day for your location. Recreational punters are not awake at 3:00AM placing bets.
- Placing some -EV bets. Potential losses from these -EV bets can be minimize by hedging on the Betfair exchange.
- Placing multiples or accumulator bets. If you are value betting this can be a useful way to not only make your account look more recreational but also to combine two or more +EV bets so you are still getting value. It is unlikely bookmakers have the resources to monitor accumulator multiple bets to identify +EV bettors. Although your other bets may get your account flagged.
- Placing bets proportionate in size to the popularity and liquidity of the market you are betting on. A £100 bet on a Premier League match is more reasonable than a £100 pound bet on a third division Croatian volleyball match. There is a delicate balance between trying to make a profit and extending the lifetime of your accounts.
- You should avoid betting exclusively on promotional offers. Otherwise, this type of betting activity is a clear indication to bookmakers that you are simply there to take advantage of bonus offers and promotions.
- Warm up your accounts up before going straight into large bets. A recreational punter does not sign up for a new account and start placing £100 bets right away. They are more likely to deposit £20 and test out the bookmaker’s app or website by spread the money among three or four different bets. Overtime, you can increase your staking size.
- Consider spreading your bets around between multiple bookmakers. Instead of placing one £100 bet with one bookmaker, you could place five £20 bets at separate bookmakers. Although this involves much more work to get the bets placed it will increase the long-term survivability of your accounts.
Final Thoughts…
The most effective way to avoid restrictions on your account will largely depend on what type of betting you are doing and which bookmakers you are using. Some of my accounts have been restricted within hours of opening while other have lasted years. Unfortunately there is no guaranteed solution to keeping your accounts up and running.